"Dwarkesh Patel: I want to better understand how you think about that broader transformation. Before we do, the other really interesting part of your worldview is that you have longer timelines to get to AGI than most of the people in San Francisco who think about AI. When do you expect a drop-in remote worker replacement?
Ege Erdil: Maybe for me, that would be around 2045.
Dwarkesh Patel: Wow. Wait, and you?
Tamay Besiroglu: Again, I’m a little bit more bullish. I mean, it depends what you mean by “drop in remote worker“ and whether it’s able to do literally everything that can be done remotely, or do most things.
Ege Erdil: I’m saying literally everything.
Tamay Besiroglu: For literally everything. Just shade Ege’s predictions by five years or by 20% or something.
Dwarkesh Patel: Why? Because we’ve seen so much progress over even the last few years. We’ve gone from Chat GPT two years ago to now we have models that can literally do reasoning, are better coders than me, and I studied software engineering in college. I mean, I did become a podcaster, I’m not saying I’m the best coder in the world.
But if you made this much progress in the last two years, why would it take another 30 to get to full automation of remote work?
Ege Erdil: So I think that a lot of people have this intuition that progress has been very fast. They look at the trend lines and just extrapolate; obviously, it’s going to happen in, I don’t know, 2027 or 2030 or whatever. They’re just very bullish. And obviously, that’s not a thing you can literally do.
There isn’t a trend you can literally extrapolate of “when do we get to full automation?”. Because if you look at the fraction of the economy that is actually automated by AI, it’s very small. So if you just extrapolate that trend, which is something, say, Robin Hanson likes to do, you’re going to say, “well, it’s going to take centuries” or something."
https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/ege-tamay
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